Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 11 2024 00:57:14

ACUS01 KWNS 110057
SWODY1
SPC AC 110055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal
Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving
offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or
central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and
hail.

....01z Update...

Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update
to  focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas.
These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but
may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so.

A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central
Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given
weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained,
00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of
supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be
maintained for this condition risk.

The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only
weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime
heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next
1-2 hours.

...Leitman.. 05/11/2024

$$

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