Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 09 2024 21:20:22

AWUS01 KWNH 092120
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 PM EDT Thu May 09 2024

Areas affected...Northern Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092120Z - 100030Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing training supercells near Red River may continue
to produce localized flash flooding.  A subsequent MPD for
increasing activity west/southwest of Dallas/Fort Worth will
likely follow soon given trends.

DISCUSSION...Currently, a trio of broad/robust right moving
supercells that developed along a slightly elevated
boundary/isentropic ascent south of the Red River have persisted
along a ribbon of enhanced instability.  RAP/HRRR and WoFS
forecasts have been persistent to diminish the convection as the
frontal boundary continues to drop south along with the higher
theta-E and unstable air.  Surface analysis notes a secondary
gradient of enhanced surface based moisture with mid-50s north of
the river while there is upper 60s to near 70F for maintence

RADAR mosaic also notes numerous smaller left moving cells within
the path of these cells and are likely the mode the guidance was
latching onto.  hile hail generation has robbed rainfall
production; a few backyard weather stations noted enhanced
rainfall rates in the 1.5-1.75"/hr range and were starting to
uptick to locally over 2".   As such, the cells are already well
established and moving along this ribbon of higher instability
along/just south of the Red River, a few hours will remain with
potential for generally aligned within dusk.   Given the area has
received above average rainfall and 0-40cm soil saturation is
above normal, increased runoff may result in a few lower-end
incidents of flash flooding through late evening

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9GrcY5Z3VynoUEjpipW7uRtQPNjhDgO0Q4GYxhrA3L8e6_EHz6BaBrUSSjl6BuSQ1aLX=
wF7j-InKhAaS17F43DHWyLM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33839693 33819526 33669428 33089412 32889536=20
            33039742 33319791 33299792 33609788=20

=3D =3D =3D
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