Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0731
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 09 2024 20:06:32

ACUS11 KWNS 092006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092006=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Areas affected...Central/Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092006Z - 092130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail of 0.75 to 1.25 inches and locally damaging
wind gusts from 45 to 60 mph will be possible with lower-topped
scattered thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...To the southeast of a shortwave trough across the Upper
Great Lakes/MS Valley, a belt of strong mid-level westerlies
persists across most of the Lower to Central OH Valley. Despite this
favorable upper flow regime, low-level winds remain weak and
decidedly westerly, to the south of a pair of occluded surface lows
over east-central IN and central OH. Meanwhile, destabilization has
struggled with pervasive clouds/cool temperatures north of the
occluded front. But an area of greater insolation is spreading east,
to the west of the occluded lows over southern IN. Low-topped
thunderstorms have developed within this post-frontal regime and
should deepen somewhat over the next few hours as they spread east.
Additional storms might form farther east ahead of the ill-defined
occluded front/surface trough. Convection should struggle to greatly
intensify, but given the presence of moderate to strong speed shear,
a few more robust updrafts will be capable of producing marginal
severe hail/wind threats into early evening.

...Grams/Smith.. 05/09/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_W0w4mHvFUMw5rmrwUftI9YKEEBs1V2cWTsRDoayulxtSAOayV6FLBL_IkJ882Fiu09z1sEKL=
xiZxhk-CgtUPqYHI34$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   39568673 39968516 40098323 40198196 40148107 39918077
            39588077 39038106 38498189 38358265 38408407 38468525
            38578642 38628689 38988690 39568673=20


=3D =3D =3D
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