Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 09 2024 01:55:06

AWUS01 KWNH 090155
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Southern IND...Northwest KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090155Z - 090600Z

SUMMARY...Quick moving MCS with intense sub-hourly 1-2" totals
with trailing line that may orient favorably for training while
crossing wet soils.  Spots of 1-3" totals may result in possible
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um denotes a compact
cluster of severe thunderstorms with well defined bow crossing out
of S IL into SW IND.  An attendant flanking line also continues to
generate sufficient surface moisture convergence to develop new
rapidly cooling tops below -60C.  Cell motions are very rapid to
the east, but are generating along the western interface of a
surface ridge and south of a secondary northern stream warm front
that appears to exist from HUF to BMG to CVG.=20

A pool of modest remaining instability (1000 J/kg of MLCAPE)
exists in the proximity to the frontal zone though central KY has
been worked over pretty well. Solid moisture flux of 1.75" with
30-35kts of inflow at mid-levels ,should support intense rates up
to 2"/hr. However, duration is likely to be the issue given
forward speed.   In addition, the concern is area has seen recent
heavy rainfall and an additional 1-2" in sub-hourly will not
infiltrate well and run off quickly, especially further west.=20=20
However, current orientation of the trailing flanking line is
fairly parallel to deeper layer steering WSW flow and may allow
for a streak of 1-3" totals through similarly saturated grounds.=20=20
This is a narrow window of time before the remaining instability
is exhausted, but the risk for a couple instances of low-end flash
flooding will remain possible for the next few hours.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8GlEE9h-hnvQP0AfA7JPpOqqp30CrNyJ038hdaCdKdHPy4VRLDARwQzB47W2lNsmolFI=
hXeckmB35nARuQIJbxjnRHA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39058642 39018508 38748434 37988421 37458456=20
            37198515 37248603 37638747 38058788 38938726=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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