Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0695
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 08 2024 14:57:40

ACUS11 KWNS 081457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081456=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-081630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Eastern TN and western NC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

Valid 081456Z - 081630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
continues.

SUMMARY...A pair of supercells will pose threats for large hail of
1-1.75 inches in diameter and damaging winds from 55-70 mph as they
likely persist east-southeast across the remainder of eastern
Tennessee and into western North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...A pair of long-lived supercells, the easternmost of
which appears to be the more intense of the two, are steadily
tracking east-southeast across eastern TN. The downstream air mass
continues to destabilize, with surface temperatures having warmed
through the 60s to low 70s over the Great Smoky and Blue Ridge
Mountains, and through the 70s to low 80s across the adjacent
Piedmont. This will support the eastern extension of the TN Valley
buoyancy plume which was characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg
per the 12Z BNA sounding. While low-level shear will remain weak per
MRX VWP data, strong mid to upper-level westerlies will support
persistence of discrete supercells which may consolidate into a
cluster as they emerge east of the higher terrain in the early
afternoon.

...Grams.. 05/08/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_JPeEGLcufAaFp8TW8v0vH86MDbkmDitSeyHjcFOcPobbhd45jFhZLegMO8LCmTiznWbhSD7U=
JxKknWArIbz0EYvK94$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36398306 36248183 35908136 35668125 35248147 35138202
            35268304 35508386 35738461 36048458 36398306=20


=3D =3D =3D
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