Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 06 2024 23:39:48 AWUS01 KWNH 062339 FFGMPD OKZ000-KSZ000-070510- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0233 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 738 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...much of central/northern OK into far southern KS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 062337Z - 070510Z SUMMARY...The flash flood threat will increase across much of central to northern OK into far southern KS over the next few hours. Training of storms from W to E or WSW to ENE is expected along with peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 2315Z over western OK showed three supercells to the north of I-40, located east of a dryline/cold front intersection point in the Roger Mills/Beckham County vicinity. The three cells were aligned from SW to NE, moving toward the ENE at 30-35 kt within a very unstable environment with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis data. Additional cells were forming along the southern flank of the ongoing storms. This region of the Plains was located just ahead of the southern end of a powerful closed mid-level low/trough centered over the High Plains, moving eastward. In addition, OK was positioned within the left exit region of a 110-120 kt upper level jet streak (speeds per RAP analysis) observed on water vapor imagery crossing from NM into the TX Panhandle. Flow aloft was also very diffluent, with the area of forcing expected to translate eastward through 06Z as the upper trough and jet max edge eastward through 06Z. S to SSW VAD winds at 850 mb over western OK were 30-40 kt at 23Z, but are expected to increase into the 50-60 kt range by ~03Z. Mean steering flow within the 850-300 mb layer is roughly SW to NE, but with supercell motions oriented to the right of the deeper layer mean wind. Developing cumulus in visible imagery at 2315Z appears to be showing the potential more development just south of the cold front/dryline intersection, and with the cells in northwestern to north-central OK expected to advance to the east more quickly than those to the south, alignment of cells with the mean steering flow is expected to support training. Where training occurs, given sufficient moisture/instability in place and the strong forcing for ascent, rainfall rates should easily get into the 2-3 in/hr range. The setup does not appear favorable for prolonged training, unless a boundary is able to materialize and stall for long enough allowing for hours of training cells (which doesn't appear likely). However, the potential for 1-2 hours of training appears greater which has the potential to allow for 3-5 inches of rain, which may be localized, but enough to cause flash flooding. Similar training/repeating potential will also exist farther north into portions of northern OK and far southern KS. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4krJSTbl7P9SerfYbFP9fC-xd7ZivddBKeFPCJkv1bX5ynVTIaDkUpKlaSP8hxJkZY4W= RU-UMwztzjT4R5njSW9Z0HU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37359649 37229500 36399471 35419526 34949638=20 34859861 34979967 35629977 36179888 36989793=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .