Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0661
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 06 2024 23:18:50

ACUS11 KWNS 062318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062318=20
IAZ000-070115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Portions of western/central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 062318Z - 070115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will move east-northeast out of Nebraska into
western and eventually parts of central Iowa. Damaging winds and
QLCS tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Aided my the mid-level shortwave trough, a line of
convection continues to the east-northeast in eastern Nebraska. This
will likely continue into parts of western into central Iowa this
evening. Dewpoints have risen into the low 60s F in the mid-Missouri
Valley. Though overall destabilization has not been robust due to
cloud cover, the upper-level forcing and continued moisture
advection should promote some severe threat. Regional VAD profiles
from KFSD/KOAX/KDMX show ample low-level shear in place. This shear
should remain and increase as the low-level jet intensifies and
moves east. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will be possible. A
tornado watch will likely be needed this evening. The primary
uncertainty will be how far north/northwest the severe threat will
be.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 05/06/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!47P_TmoJPCkyzp5XeOJJNY0DiaUa5YSo-neXRl-7tDupReR-11xwoLTB_SXym_lK560abYCpL=
GJDCDQGMEMFqjWkdGU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   40689462 41629511 42709641 42939647 43299620 43299572
            42619440 40629387 40689462=20


=3D =3D =3D
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