Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0653
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 06 2024 19:45:46

ACUS11 KWNS 061945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061945=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-062045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...South-central KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...189...

Valid 061945Z - 062045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187, 189 continues.

SUMMARY...Initial supercells just east of Dodge City will intensify
as they move eastward across south-central Kansas. Very large hail
with an increasing threat for a strong tornado is anticipated by
21-22z (4-5pm).

DISCUSSION...A trio of convective updrafts continue to build just
east of the Dodge City area. Low-level hodographs remain enlarged
about a county downstream of these supercells. As this activity
spreads east into the greater SRH environment, tornado threat should
be expected to increase rapidly. Modified 18Z DDC sounding with 19Z
surface observations suggest MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg should be
common into south-central KS in the Pratt-Medicine Lodge vicinity.
Lesser buoyancy is still prevalent farther east towards Wichita, but
a 50-80 mile wedge of clearing will promote rapid destabilization
into early evening.

...Grams.. 05/06/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6G4kmnIA5o9IZvqt7LacXAocLQsoZHVH7-zlelKNsC5NQm5JjMPE78ZHaNx80J1ayitN1H1NX=
t1Cyefapj_QghYccnc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38249924 38459798 38029753 37459742 37159763 37039817
            36989903 37059945 37559955 38249924=20


=3D =3D =3D
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