Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0623
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 04 2024 02:27:18

ACUS11 KWNS 040227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040226=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Oklahoma...central
Kansas...southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 040226Z - 040430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The environment should remain supportive of large hail and
severe wind gusts over the next few hours. A low-end tornado threat
will also exist, particularly for remaining discrete storms. A new
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Convection within the central/southern Plains continues
to move eastward this evening. Regional VAD wind show and increase
in the low-level jet (40-50 kts). Along with the low-level jet, 60+
F dewpoints and observed steep mid-level lapse rates will continue
to support some threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
Low-level hodograph curvature is evident on VAD wind profiles as
well. Some tornado threat will exist, though the primarily linear
storm mode should limit a greater threat. A new severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed for at least parts of areas from
northwest Oklahoma into southeast Nebraska.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 05/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6PiSKoVwCAolyyT_HqDRmjcT8rF8bNg-PiY4F4-JzrmF4ypPuKtz7XPEswM0cJAGzJFflP1CR=
ZTNooWeDENiClDy_lY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39759800 40359737 40629696 40469657 39489649 38579701
            37399791 35949880 35549936 35419993 36060004 37129925
            38239881 39759800=20


=3D =3D =3D
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