Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0620
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 04 2024 00:28:16

ACUS11 KWNS 040028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040027=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-040230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...western North Texas into adjacent southwestern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 040027Z - 040230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convection across North Texas -- from west of
Childress to the Wichita Falls/Jacksboro/Mineral Wells vicinity --
may expand in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours.  New
WW issuance could become necessary, if convection can organize
further.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of northeastward-moving storms west of
Childress will soon exit Tornado Watch 178.  Some model signal is
evident that the storms could persist -- and even grow upscale a bit
-- over the next couple of hours.  The currently observed
environment -- mixed-layer CAPE near or exceeding 3000 J/kg -- would
certainly support this potential.  While shear remains somewhat
modest, veering winds with height are providing ample shear for
mid-level updraft rotation.  Additionally, other storms from near
Wichita Falls south to near Mineral Wells -- within generally the
same background environment -- have also maintained intensity.

We will continue to monitor convective evolution in the short term.=20
Signs of increased coverage or upscale growth of this convection
could warrant WW consideration.

...Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-GWXpCD2CWPiMtDhbQJ3uBUZbwUKAm5N-FTRt0VqJ6YkZu37oAjZNqlpqubiKcPbk8LKOddty=
mLUdZmBdgAPtTE_WQA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34120118 34810004 35129893 34949794 34469706 33629674
            32589790 32609850 34120118=20


=3D =3D =3D
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