Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0617
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 03 2024 22:31:47

ACUS11 KWNS 032231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032231=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...Western and central Nebraska/Kansas border

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032231Z - 040000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible as storms
continue south-southeastward near the Kansas/Nebraska border. Though
low, a tornado could also occur with stronger, discrete storms. A
watch is possible within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Surface moisture continues to return into southern
Nebraska. Convection in the vicinity of North Platte has deepened
over the last 30 minutes as result. With an expected increase in
low-level southerly winds over the next few hours, low 50s F
dewpoints will likely push into southern Nebraska ahead of the
approaching cold front. Convection that can mature will likely be
sustained by the low-level jet. Large hail and damaging winds will
likely be the primary threats. Surface dewpoint depressions are
enough that the tornado threat should remain low. However, low-level
hodograph curvature will increase this evening and discrete storms
near the theta-e gradient will pose some tornado risk. A watch is
possible within the next 1-2 hours.

...Wendt.. 05/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6--yzj5RkE1aB_qVI41kA_yRzW9Hcp9OM8mGOHb-ockPv7PgyZcILl34YiqcU3dW6AgJbz_DY=
0tLJLXo6Ms8pzxQaNw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40820211 41210153 40869836 40299745 39699771 39209888
            39100085 39320174 40050249 40820211=20


=3D =3D =3D
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