Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0613 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 03 2024 18:19:11 ACUS11 KWNS 031819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031818=20 TXZ000-032015- Mesoscale Discussion 0613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 031818Z - 032015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development, including a couple of evolving supercells, appears increasingly probable through 2-4 PM CDT. Strongest storms may eventually become capable of producing large hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter, and perhaps potential for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air is allowing for the development of strong to extreme potential instability with full insolation. During the next few hours this will become focused along a zone of strengthening differential surface heating and mixing, where an initial cold frontal surge into the Texas South Plains has stalled and is weakening, and along a sharpening dryline south of this boundary into the Davis Mountains vicinity. Mid/upper support for convective development is unclear, but west to southwesterly flow aloft appears to be trending at least broadly difluent, as initially weak low-level warm advection becomes a bit more enhanced along the boundaries. The Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, among other output, suggest that the initiation of isolated to widely scattered storms may commence as early as 19-21Z, as convective temperatures are approached. Lower through mid-level wind fields are at least initially rather weak, but veering with height beneath 20-40 kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer seems likely to be supportive of the evolution of intense supercell structures given the instability. Tornadic potential appears a bit more unclear, but in the presence of light to modest southwesterly deep layer mean flow, rightward propagating storms along the segment of strengthening differential heating roughly near/north of Big Spring into areas west of Abilene may pose the most appreciable risk. ...Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2024 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-f_nNe5mfWo1F9n2Mh5hugIoIiCwjNk8nmO0nM5B9zwfuKyD7-9L_Wz_-vzDRGeLyM-StqPe= AjlU_zadN4L-auGroU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31909934 31220098 30610136 29930172 29780198 29640274 30990296 31900244 33200179 32849974 31909934=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .