Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 03 2024 16:14:09

AWUS01 KWNH 031614
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1213 PM EDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031610Z - 031915Z

SUMMARY...Persistent over-running thunderstorms continue to cross
already flooded areas.  WPC upgrade to Moderate Risk with 16z
update.

DISCUSSION... GOES-Visible imagery denotes broken but redeveloping
convection across Southeast Texas with more than one
cooling/overshooting top denoted in recent trends.  Well defined
outflow boundary to the southwest appears to have a weak
inflection upon it further northwest across Madison to Brazos
county, that a subtle ribbon of enhanced instability remains
extending toward the NW.  Veered low level flow through this axis
appears to be sufficiently convergent with the outflow to support
further isentropic ascent to tap this 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE axis.
More than ample moisture but modest flux should support 1.5-2"/hr
rates so additional localized 2-3" totals are probable with spots
of 4" possible.

As such, new development has persisted and moved downstream over
highly saturated/flooded ground conditions across Walker to
Liberty county.  Even locations further northwest that had seen
2-5" in the last day or two toward Limestone county could quickly
result in increased runoff and result in localized flash flooding
over the next few hours.  As a result, WPC is upgrading to a
Moderate Risk within the Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Uncertainty will remain on longevity of these cells, the outflow
boundary continues to slowly press westward and low level winds
are likely to become increasingly parallel to said boundary as
diurnal heating will focus pressure falls further west over the
Cap Rock, Hill county and Permian Basin.  Will monitor closely for
further trends... and make this MPD shorter in nature (3hrs) given
this uncertainty.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_8XI7zapbOAEfH_4bBU8z6DaamEHf4HMo-mybPE-8_IT5SU0o8wZnbxJo5Bu94uIMkPE=
hDLV6xj79HmSfgZQnOXKGlQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31539630 31369555 31079473 30679396 30199367=20
            29729407 29769500 30379624 30809679 31339682=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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