Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 01 2024 23:44:32

AWUS01 KWNH 012344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-020540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0205
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...Central TX...southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012340Z - 020540Z

Summary...Localized short-term totals of 3-5" may occur with
training of convection along the dry line. Isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Severe thunderstorms have erupted late this afternoon
across central TX, along and ahead of a dry line that is bisecting
the state. A favorable mesoscale environment is in place for
convection and heavy rainfall to persist, including an ML CAPE
gradient of 1500-3500 J/kg, PWATs of 0.8-1.2 inches (near the 90th
percentile, per surrounding SPC sounding climatogology), and
effective bulk shear of 25-45 kts (provided by left exit region of
a modest subtropical jet streak).

Deep convective cells have been capable of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates
per MRMS, and locally hourly estimates have also approached this
range (2-3") as steering flow being oriented towards the NE
parallels a good portion of the dry line. This is allowing the
cells that are filling-in along the line to train/repeat, which
can very quickly result in locally significant flash flooding.
Given that expectation, it's not too surprising to see some of the
latest HRRR runs indicating localized 3-5" totals through 06z near
the TX/OK Red River border region (though overall the model is
still too timid with convective development, given trends). While
much of the 12z CAM guidance is not particularly organized (or
helpful) with the depiction of the convection, there are still
some appreciably high probabilities (~25%) for localized 3"
exceedance through 06z, per a 40-km neighborhood via the 12z HREF
suite. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
considered to be possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!62RvKhH8XDxWDO_L6iEfpiHAiHYjgjKB2J3SqoGHCm7mq_hSKcX4_QuV_4N491N0l9C7=
TLXH7vVbv66n3CaAhVBv-K4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35499969 34969785 34529767 33609789 32739820=20
            32299970 32380196 33100237 33850175 34800114=20
            35190055=20

=3D =3D =3D
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