Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0583
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 01 2024 00:56:13

ACUS11 KWNS 010056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010055=20
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-010230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Areas affected...Southeast IA...Northwest IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 163...

Valid 010055Z - 010230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues.

SUMMARY...Convection should gradually weaken as it spreads toward
the Mississippi River Valley. New watch is not anticipated
downstream.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells linger across southern IA, along the
southern fringe of large-scale support, in association with ejecting
short-wave trough. Most notable, longer-lived supercell is
propagating east across Appanoose County is approaching an air mass
that is increasingly hostile to surface-based updrafts. While
low-level lapse rates were steep at 00z/DVN, MLCAPE was only 40
J/kg, and nocturnal cooling will limit further destabilization.
While this lead storm may produce marginally severe hail, or perhaps
a brief tornado over the next hour or so, current thinking is
convection should gradually weaken as the evening progresses.

...Darrow.. 05/01/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_U9aQhQRPB8Idyb9Wf7e2HE5xWgnRDy852KfBhTaxgKDOC4SzQBJlBYozRKjM3nClbRBpXY7N=
_0OMXBm93RwgCkXX-Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41489297 41519118 40519098 40659329 41489297=20


=3D =3D =3D
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