Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0571
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 29 2024 09:12:32

ACUS11 KWNS 290912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290911=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-291045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Areas affected...far southeast TX into southwest LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162...

Valid 290911Z - 291045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind risk will increase across far southeast
Texas into southwest Louisiana over the next 1-2 hours. A tornado
also may be possible with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in intensity has been noted in radar
imagery over southeast TX into southwest LA in the last 30 minutes
or so. Reflectivity cores have deepened/intensified on 7 km CAPPI
and some increase in velocity signatures are also noted. Convection
will continue to move into an uncapped airmass close to the coast
characterized by SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Furthermore, increasing
low-level rotation has been noted in cells over southeast TX ahead
of the convective line. Tornado potential may be somewhat increased
as these more cellular elements merge with the line in the near
term. HGX and LCH VWP data show favorable low-level hodographs
supporting rotation and a brief tornado or two may occur in addition
to damaging gusts associated with the southeastward surging bow into
southwest LA.

...Leitman.. 04/29/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!81dB9hFEWaeP46MvInUhIjav0iH9mBB4HQKgnGn5QTcM-a-Ll_SVEt8wP6e2EjdzojsTQt71s=
bvgnEASGZNOp9Jc4Gg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30339468 30479402 30719319 30819228 30559200 29889211
            29639282 29489358 29589452 29779484 30059487 30339468=20


=3D =3D =3D
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