Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0570
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 29 2024 06:23:00

ACUS11 KWNS 290622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290622=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-290715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 290622Z - 290715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may persist through the overnight hours.
Damaging gusts and a tornado will be the main concern with this
activity. A new watch will be needed by 07z.

DISCUSSION...A mature MCS over central LA into southeast TX will
continue to develop east/southeast overnight. A 06z RAOB from LCH
shows a modestly unstable airmass with near 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A deep
saturated layer from the surface to around 700 mb will preclude
steep low-level lapse rates and limit cold pool strength. This will
likely limit a more widespread damaging wind risk. Nevertheless,
favorable vertical shear and sufficient instability will support a
continued risk for at least sporadic, locally strong to severe gusts
of 45-60 mph. Nearer to the coast where dewpoints are in the low
70s, vertically veering low-level winds with somewhat enlarged
low-level hodographs may support some brief tornado potential. But
strong gusts are expected to largely be the main concern through
early morning.

...Leitman/Thompson.. 04/29/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Z9GVC-p4sSSbNTnR25yaLdlpURgr8_fb6mbV6cUShumE5fxvpsFl5QsZWfFadaLxtp0H7UZz=
rFnsNVMarvy3QnbsMw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   31079456 31969269 31809199 31479158 30599151 30309154
            29679182 29429242 29509327 29709380 29909417 30479476
            30819492 31079456=20


=3D =3D =3D
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