Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 28 2024 21:32:00

AWUS01 KWNH 282131
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-290300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana,
far southwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282130Z - 290300Z

Summary...A cluster of convection between Temple and Palestine is
showing signs of growing upscale, with training/cell mergers
expected to pose a flash flood risk (locally significant) through
at least 0330Z.

Discussion...Maturing convection between Temple and Palestine has
evolved into a mix of linear segments and rotating cells over the
past hour.  An axis of training established itself early on in
this evolution, where 2-5 inch amounts were noted over the past 3
hours near Temple, Cameron, and Groesbeck.  Parts of this MCS have
now begun to right-move and pick up forward speed (near
Palestine), although some parts of this MCS now appear to have
laid a more east/west oriented boundary from near Franklin
westward to approximately Killeen.  The combination of 1)
continued southerly low-level flow perpendicular to this boundary,
2) abundant moisture/instability along and ahead of this boundary,
and 3) weak inhibition/forcing aloft approaching this area has
resulted in increased concern for convective training on the
southwest flank of this evolving MCS which should result in areas
of 2+ inch/hr rain rates for multiple hours and an increased flash
flood risk.

Models (particularly the HRRR) also hint at this potential trend
and suggest that local amounts of 5-7 inches are possible with
this ongoing evolution.  FFGs are relatively high currently (3-4
inch/hr thresholds), suggesting that multiple hours of heavier
rates may be needed to pose a flash flood threat (outside of
typical sensitive/low-lying areas).  Given model/observational
trends, flash flooding is considered likely in this area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5s6EYVNXGUMyM9NFe28St63YMl0YNLO4EWlgqWiP2vHcWo2mKDUQOndx8grVBcegArUw=
yQlu-lHb5vGQ8BdlgYCz7Qw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33209391 33169301 31989275 31169347 30529468=20
            29749661 29649793 30429810 31549753 31989662=20
            32779498=20

=3D =3D =3D
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