Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0560
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 28 2024 14:47:35

ACUS11 KWNS 281447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281446=20
TXZ000-281615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Areas affected...a part of east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281446Z - 281615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Short-line segment moving east-northeast into a part of
east Texas may intensify as the downstream air mass slowly
destabilizes into the afternoon. A couple brief tornadoes and
locally damaging winds are possible.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of the largely decaying early morning MCS have
maintained a short-line segment within the TX Triangle. KGRK radar
has detected transient mesovortices along its leading edge, which is
overlapping with the western periphery of the stronger low-level
shear environment across east TX per HGX/CRP VWP data. While surface
wind gusts have been sub-severe thus far, primary threat will be
potential for a couple brief tornadoes as the line segment shifts
towards the I-45 corridor. Downstream air mass is slowly
destabilizing amid pervasive cloud cover, but this process could
support gradual intensification into the afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance
differs in how extensive/intense this convection will be prior to
later in the afternoon.

...Grams/Hart.. 04/28/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_PVa384CcrzNZqba5bMdsbJRklDSVCG_-OSJUFcAKSLh7cExbzjyYgZGCzMbheqxXno_DkO9Z=
iruTkiGG6PhFqwJbv8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31359689 31809605 31929545 31779492 31559444 31159436
            30979436 30689441 30529468 30389522 30199623 30229685
            30279694 30279694 30839683 30839683 31359689=20


=3D =3D =3D
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