Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 28 2024 12:07:48 AWUS01 KWNH 281207 FFGMPD TXZ000-281745- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0194 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 806 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...Central to Northeast Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 281205Z - 281745Z SUMMARY...Continued risk for scattered flash flooding through the early morning as the squall line starts to slow and degrade.=20 Localized focus of stronger ascent may result in spots of additional 2-4" through late morning. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a solid line of convection from Hopkins to Hill to Burnett county within the longer squall line that goes from the Ozarks to South Texas. A few inflections within the bow are noted near Hill county and N Blanco county; starting to slide out of MPD 192. This exposes locations along and just north to greater south and south-southwest low level inflow and stronger isentropic ascent of 40-50kts of 925-850mb flow per VWP, and while somewhat oblique, along with modest remaining lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE still provides the strong ascent for vertical moisture loading to support 2"/hr rates. Further north into northeast Texas/southwest Oklahoma, instability rates have reduced and isentropic ascent is further deminished; but additionally, the core of the remaining cold pool and 1014mb meso-high (per 11z analysis), which may further allow for the outflow boundary to the south to elongate for longer duration of isentropic ascent and duration of said 2"/hr rates, placing Hill to Van Zandt county in higher risk of increased totals due to cross-track training as well as ascent needed to maintain stronger cells. GOES-E WV loop also denotes upstream height-falls have reduced across the Hill country of Texas at the right entrance to a northward lifting upper-level speed max. This will further delay, perhaps even stall the eastward progression of the front (especially as cold pool is more well established further north and surface winds appear to be blowing through (from southeast) the line near HLR/ACT. Given second inflection along the line near Blanco/Burnet county, this may allow for cell motions to be more northward with time and increase potential for training across the southern half of the line. As such an additional location for enhanced rain totals through mid-morning will exist in and north/northeast of this inflection as well.=20=20 While the line continues to slowly advance into higher FFG, NASA SPoRT top 40cm soil saturation ratios are in the 45-55% range, suggesting infiltration is likely, but given rates and duration...scattered incidents of flash flooding remain possible through the mid to late morning hours before diurnal maximum of stabilization occurs, with reducing inflow and developing capping resulting in further fracturing of remaining convection. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8XOoOq_9eWQR0MCn2O2dit8jE-fu-J0QhoL03JOYvP1xGJ4KotJoYnb7UdVz3p2zFqUC= L972Gj0Ootvczv4X6MzZ-FE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33529566 32939488 32019513 31419546 30689620=20 30099703 29819815 30339862 31159823 32009770=20 32589726 33319674=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .