Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 28 2024 03:28:42

AWUS01 KWNH 280328
FFGMPD
TXZ000-280926-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1127 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...Central TX...including portions of the Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280326Z - 280926Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
pose concerns for areas of flash flooding over the next several
hours across portions of the Edwards Plateau.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar
imagery shows strong convection with enhanced rainfall rates
developing and expanding east along and just ahead of a developing
cold front across areas of west TX. The activity is being strongly
forced by a combination of stronger low-level convergence/forcing
in close proximity to a wave of low pressure on the front and the
ejection of height falls/shortwave energy out of the
central/southern Rockies and into the High Plains.

Strong instability with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg is
pooled out across much of central TX and involving much of the
Edwards Plateau region. The area VWP data shows a southerly
low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts which is likely to increase in a
nocturnal fashion over the next few hours. This will maintain
stronger moisture transport up across much of central TX and also
help sustain at least moderately strong boundary layer instability.

The 00Z HREF guidance shows the gradual ejection of height falls
off to the east tonight across western and central TX, with
divergent flow aloft working in tandem with the favorable
thermodynamic environment for strong convection. Bulk shear values
of 30 to 40+ kts will further support organized updrafts which in
conjunction with the instability and stronger moisture transport
should favor locally high rainfall rates that may approach 2
inches per hour.

Some gradual forward propagation of the convective line ejecting
into central TX is expected, but rainfall totals are likely to
locally reach 2 to 4 inches given the rates. As a result, there
may be some instances of flash flooding accompanying the
convective activity over the next several hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_cEgOECRPKqX4JkHxdlnVRlDsn0_oH3AOPa-s0Qzs5WuBaW1gXbiKLQPA1lQHMFsXE6W=
CuYApBgZ328LSijaVgoCEZ4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32529828 32499773 31919765 31259852 30529912=20
            30089972 29920064 30020137 30430211 30810225=20
            31190190 31900132 32070070 32279932=20

=3D =3D =3D
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