Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 28 2024 02:47:16

AWUS01 KWNH 280247
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-280845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1046 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...southern Oklahoma, western through northern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280245Z - 280845Z

Summary...An elongated MCS across western north Texas and south
central Oklahoma continues to remain oriented favorably for
training and 2+ inch/hr rain rates.  Flash flooding is expected,
and significant impacts are possible.

Discussion...An elongated MCS continues to develop eastward across
portiosn of central Oklahoma while remaining nearly stationary
along an axis from near Duncan, OK to Wichita Falls, TX to
Haskell, TX (north of Abilene).  Within the stationary parts of
the MCS, areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates were being estimated by
MRMS, and a few radar estimates of 3-9 inch totals have been noted
across portions of Knox and Baylor counties.  This portion of the
MCS was only just beginning to gradually shift to the east while
backbuilding along the dryline west of Abilene.  1-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates are expected to continue along this axis, prompting
areas of flash flooding as FFG thresholds in these areas (in the
2.5 inch/hr range) are threatened.  Flash flooding remains likely
- especially in areas that are sensitive/low-lying and/or areas
that experience greater than 1 hour of rainfall.

Farther northeast, concern exists that new cells quickly
developing along and east of I-35 in southern Oklahoma will mature
and merge with the slow-moving MCS traversing that area.  FFGs in
these regions are in the 2 inch/hr range and should be readily
exceeded beneath training and merging cells.  Models suggest
potential for 4-7 inches of rainfall in these areas.  Should this
potential materialize, significant flash flooding is expected.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-BOoClojl3vwP4Br5VVZAsLnoQc-3Wtb7lf7q7kTTd5JkrI2cv8T1RK3da_-6H7zV9ep=
AhGAWouli7R948b8tVOtlcw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36239599 36239496 35359464 33949476 33209634=20
            32519818 32080069 32380208 33270124 34239957=20
            35149810 35709697=20

=3D =3D =3D
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