Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0554
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 28 2024 02:15:44

ACUS11 KWNS 280215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280215=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-280315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...Middle Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 280215Z - 280315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk will increase across central MO into central
IL late this evening into the early-morning hours. Tornado Watch is
warranted to account for this risk.

DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm advection is noted across MO late
this evening as LLJ strengthens into this portion of the mid MS
Valley. An elongated LEWP extends from southeast KS-western/northern
MO-southeast IA. This MCS is gradually advancing east within a
strongly sheared, and modestly unstable air mass. 00z soundings from
SGF and ILX exhibited surface-6km bulk shear around 35kt, but 0-3
SRH is quite strong at SGF, and should strengthen a bit over the
next several hours. While the primary storm mode should remain a
LEWP, some risk for QLCS tornadoes will exist, along with embedded
supercells. New tornado watch will be issued given the current
trends.

...Darrow/Smith.. 04/28/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_VOCTWjJ7Hi0awptx-FaN3j2j1aylylS--J-Pmhclflok8uzTDowLCRvbqIwg4CWZVsuW7Zze=
11g88d7U3Xse6sajIU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38359300 41109013 40568868 38579056 37629192 38359300=20


=3D =3D =3D
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