Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 27 2024 22:51:10

AWUS01 KWNH 272251
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-280249-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin, central/eastern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272249Z - 280249Z

Summary...Areas of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
training, resulting in spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times.  A
few spots of excessive runoff are possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage an intensity
along a nearly stationary synoptic boundary extending from north
of Milwaukee west-southwestward to near Cedar Rapids.=20
Heating/warm advection along and south of this boundary has
enabled 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop near the storms,
supporting robust updrafts.  Additionally, the front and storms
were oriented perpendicular to west-southwesterly flow aloft,
allowing for a narrow axis of convective training immediately
along the front.  Spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates have been
estimated by MRMS recently, which was threatening FFG thresholds
of 1.5 inch/hr in vicinity of the convection.

The evolution of the flash flood risk in this region is in
question, however.  A mature MCS continues across north-central
Missouri that should spread from west-southwest to east-northeast
across the region later this evening.  Additionally, modest
geopotential height rises and shortwave ridging aloft were noted
via objective analyses which could suppress convective coverage -
especially after sunset when gradual, nocturnal stabilization
takes hold.  The overall scenario suggests that isolated flash
flood potential should exist for at least a few hours through the
early evening.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7a51NimcXq0Aw_zCduL09S4KQXLx5VFsqqIQFRX_E3Bw83bRFZKwk1vum7d2OCvD6D2z=
29c4WWpf4fDQ4u-1qIPo-XQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43788788 42748774 42059058 40889259 41729315=20
            42819249 43649027=20

=3D =3D =3D
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