Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 27 2024 18:03:04

AWUS01 KWNH 271802
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northwest MO...Southcentral
IA...Far Southeast NEB...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271800Z - 272300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/training thunderstorms along the stationary
front may pose a flash flooding concern especially across portions
of Northeast Kansas that have been saturated over the last few
days.

DISCUSSION...17z surface analysis denotes a well defined
stationary front extending from the surface low near DDC
northeastward to GBD-SLN-FRI-STJ-LWD into south-central IA.  There
is a pool of modest moisture across NE KS into NW MO but
strengthening south to south-southeasterly jet will increase from
30kts to 50kts.  Strong warm advective convergence/isentropic
ascent is starting to result in initial convection just north of
I-70 from SLN to MHK.  Strong updrafts are expected to be drier
initially; producing hail; however, with the given flux
convergence, rates should steadily increase up to 1-1.5"/hr.=20
Expectation is also for eastward expansion along the front toward
the east and while strength of near and just about the boundary
layer are supporting some northward propagation off the front,
deep layer steering will veer across 700-300mb to allow for
southwesterly flow to potentially train across northeast KS into
NW MO into the later afternoon/early evening hours, resulting in
1.5-1.75"/hr totals.=20

The near term concern is that initial cells will track across an
area of saturated/flooded grounds across from Jewell to Clay to
Osage county in KS, where 2-3.5" of rain has brought relative soil
moisture through 40cm above 60% with some rivers near Action stage
already.  Additionally, FFG values are generally a bit lower
across NE KS into south-central IA with 3hr values in the
1.5-2.25" range, which remains approachable given strength of
updrafts/moisture flux into cells.  So as the line of cells
expands toward the east along the front; the potential for
training and spots of 2-3" totals may result in localized flash
flooding concerns through the evening hours.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5r0BEcFqlafAs6kZ6VNwOl0VRJNLYk4I-QQm9akwThhoUDshhqOw4OldPj-fpMvtrO9-=
7Magru4ZfpFrhBeONkMxkFg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41409294 40749269 40449314 39939392 39259538=20
            38639679 38609813 39089849 39659822 40079735=20
            40849578 41329396=20

=3D =3D =3D
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