Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0540
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 27 2024 16:34:09

ACUS11 KWNS 271634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271633=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...Central to northeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 271633Z - 271830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop during the early to
mid-afternoon along the surface front across central to northeast
Kansas. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will all be
possible.

DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed a quasi-stationary front
across central to northeast KS. A swelling CU field with embedded
small CBs have initiated along the portion of the front just north
of SLN to MHK. With minimal warm-sector MLCIN amid 65-66 F surface
dew points, convective development will increase into early
afternoon. Primary uncertainty is the degree of sustained convective
coverage. With the deep-layer shear vector oriented roughly parallel
to the front, a cluster-type mode may eventually dominate. But given
that large-scale ascent is relatively weak through the afternoon,
it's plausible that a more discrete supercell mode could be
maintained for several hours. With 40-45 kt south-southwesterly
low-level flow per the ICT VWP data, all severe hazards will be
possible, including the potential for a strong tornado or two later
this afternoon.

...Grams.. 04/27/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_R9_sYWvt4RM2_x4egXVmAbhydLsacBrfzAkGh7noTE2yqn7IWU9sFFIZySLS4Wf9ojHi088D=
RJ8YhJ9aJOtZf5ic44$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   39309733 39919582 40109521 39769481 39069508 38379640
            38009822 38219871 38599887 39309733=20


=3D =3D =3D
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