Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 26 2024 22:24:21 AWUS01 KWNH 262224 FFGMPD LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270417- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0179...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 622 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Corrected for Areas Affected Areas affected...portions of central/northeast Texas, the ArkLaTex, southwestern Arkansas, and northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 262217Z - 270417Z Summary...Deep convection continues to train along an axis from near Texarkana, AR to near Hillsboro, TX (just south of DFW).=20 More isolated, yet slow-moving convection continues across San Saba County, TX. Flash flooding remains likely along this corridor. Discussion...Vigorous convection across central through northeast Texas has grown upscale into a more focused line while continuing to train from near Hillsboro to Texarkana. The cells continue to move to the right of mean southwesterly flow aloft while ingesting strong buoyancy (3000+ J/kg SBCAPE) and seasonably high moisture content (1.5+ inch PW values), continuing to support efficient rainfall processes. In fact, areas of 2.5-3.5 inch/hr rain rates were continuing beneath the band despite a very slow eastward translation of the overall complex over the past half-hour or so. Current indications are that this cluster will continue to maintain its intensity while moving only slowly northeastward into southwestern Arkansas through the early evening. Flash flooding is expected from northeast Texas through the ArkLaTex region and into southwestern Arkansas. The extent of this risk, however, will depend on the degree of backbuilding of the MCS in areas south/southwest of the DFW metroplex. Weak/subtle shortwave troughs (per objective analysis) continue to traverse the region and may be responsible for newer updrafts near the Stephenville, TX area, although with mid/upper forcing from a longer-wave trough over Nebraska gradually moving away from the area, the degree of backbuilding remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the presence of ongoing, mature convection and 25-35 kt southerly 850mb flow and strong instability in place across east Texas should aid in maintaining convective intensity through at least 04Z. While FFGs are somewhat higher with eastward extent, the 2-3.5 inch/hr rain rates should result in excessive runoff especially in sensitive/low-lying areas. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4k7YEPL55pnmvP_MrPFuye0dNUH--gBVF3EW8MzEZRxiYbtbDVa0PgvRvHzWBGiF69sF= 8Q7MAvSj6faI2HGnmfdCUNw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LZK...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35069291 34869205 33449220 32809274 32379395=20 31979559 30789837 31929865 32869759 33599552=20 34169428=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .