Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 26 2024 03:50:36 AWUS01 KWNH 260350 FFGMPD KSZ000-NEZ000-260815- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0173 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1149 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Areas affected...Far Northwest to North-Central KS...Southern NE Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260348Z - 260815Z SUMMARY...The threat for some isolated areas of flash flooding will continue over the next few hours from locally repeating areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery continues to show an axis of deep convection across areas of far northwest to north-central KS and into southern NE. Over the last 1 to 2 hours, the convection has been tending to align in a more parallel fashion to north of a quasi-stationary front. There is still a conducive environment for strong convection to persist over the next few hours given a nocturnally enhanced southerly low-level jet of 50+ kts overrunning the front and with moderate elevated buoyancy characterized by MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. Furthermore, the flow aloft is very divergent as seen in GOES-E satellite imagery, and this deeper layer ascent in conjunction with the favorable thermodynamic environment, strong shear parameters, and the aforementioned low-level jet should sustain the threat of organized convection for at least the next 3 to 5 hours. The more organized storm clusters should continue to produce rainfall rates that could reach 1.5"/hour. The PW environment is not overly high with values around 1.25 inches, but the level of deep convection and persistence of the low-level jet energy should still favor a notable heavy rainfall threat in the short-term. This will especially be the case where some of these storm clusters tend to repeat or train over the same area, and there will be concerns for this especially over parts of far southern NE based on the latest satellite and radar trends. Additional rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 4 inches can be expected over the next few hours. This will continue to drive at least an isolated threat of flash flooding as a result. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_auzN1Aj6lvA6Lea1gzixBaDdzybgAh7FUs8rEh_xMaMdpXK6uvhSpNXIGkwITUviKZa= RgYMZ5yfJUKn3J7toy2n51U$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41489725 41219676 40799665 40319712 39869879=20 39639998 39530062 39470155 39670197 40320168=20 40760083 41109962 41439819=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .