Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 25 2024 18:15:27 AWUS01 KWNH 251815 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0171 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 214 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Areas affected...eastern KS, western MO into far northeastern OK/northern AR and southeastern NE Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 251812Z - 260000Z SUMMARY...A fairly broad NW to SE oriented risk of flash flooding will be in place through 00Z for portions of eastern KS, western MO into far northeastern OK/northern AR and southeastern NE. Peak rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and additional totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected through 00Z. DISCUSSION...3 hour duration loops of GOES East infrared imagery showed two organized areas of colder cloud tops over the central U.S., the first over southwestern/southern MO and the second advancing across northeastern KS. Cloud tops were warming with the southwestern/southern MO cluster as it advances farther east into a more stable environment but the northeastern KS cluster was forward propagating toward the southeast at 15-25 kt, following modified Corfidi vectors with inflow in the 850-700 mb layer, along a MUCAPE gradient of 500 to 1000+ J/kg via the 18Z SPC mesoanalysis. Additional, less organized, cells were observed via radar imagery along the eastern KS/OK border, with movement toward the ENE at 20-30 kt. The broader region of thunderstorms were located northeast of a warm front lifting northeast across KS/OK at 18Z. Elevated convergence oriented NW to SE, maximized in the 850-700 mb layer, was helping to support the ongoing areas of thunderstorms with a mean movement toward the east. This overall mean motion is expected to continue as the elevated convergence axis/front aloft translates toward the northeast through 00Z. Periods of training within the unstable airmass are likely with new development to the immediate west of the ongoing activity. Rainfall rates are likely to peak in the 1-2 in/hr range where west to east training occurs, and additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) are expected through 00Z. While there may be some slight overlap of additional rainfall with an estimated 3-6 inches which impacted portions of I-44 between Joplin and Springfield through 18Z, the majority of additional rainfall is expected to be north/east of those heavily impacted areas. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!62-cJ40q8Ipfvx8_GmSdkYVxwRaCFpbQYGLZR2O78zAJwrI2PE9Wm-OF9THKXeeUwmwU= uRFlcbcz6a49XWyA05TQ804$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40309597 40029473 38429274 37249094 36289114=20 36439312 36929611 37779721 39529688=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .