Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 25 2024 09:16:17 AWUS01 KWNH 250916 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251515- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0168 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 515 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO...Northwest AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 250915Z - 251515Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some concerns for cell-training are expected to develop this morning. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expanding in coverage across portions of northeast OK and eastern KS as a gradually strengthening warm air advection pattern ensues across the central and southern Plains. A gradually moistening and strengthening low-level jet is overrunning a returning warm front draped generally northwest to southeast across the region, and this is yielding an increase in isentropic ascent which coupled with the arrival of a well-defined elevated instability axis is favoring the development and expansion of the convective activity. Another factor driving the increasing convective threat is a corridor of divergent flow aloft associated with the southeastward advance of an upper-level jet max over the lower OH Valley and corresponding RRQ jet dynamics. MUCAPE values are on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/Kg, but with a notable destabilization trend seen aloft over northern OK and southern KS where 3-hour MUCAPE differentials of +500 to +1000 J/kg are currently seen. This elevated instability pool continues to advance off to the northeast as the low-level jet strengthens and transports increasingly moist air up from the southern Plains. This combined with the aforementioned forcing should favor an expansion of convection going through the early to mid-morning hours across northeast OK, eastern KS, and eventually into areas of southwest MO and northwest AR. Increasing PWs, reaching upwards of 1.5+ inches by 12Z, will work in tandem with the instability pool and moderately strong effective bulk shear to help drive rainfall rates that may reach 1.5 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells. The 00Z HREF guidance supports some of the convection becoming increasingly aligned in a northwest to southeast fashion, and this will favor cell-training concerns. Thus, a threat for locally enhanced rainfall totals will exist. Some storm totals of 3 to 4 inches, with isolated heavier amounts, will be possible through mid-morning. In fact, a couple of HREF members suggest spotty 5+ inch totals. While the antecedent conditions have been quite dry, the high rainfall rates and training concerns suggest that some instances of flash flooding will be possible. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_C9zawQmX-ZFeRqQOd3vV7LF4acL8BSqREPiZ8EazU_SVoAHz-QHc3MY22j4JJOEFDGE= 8Gd5zMTMoQQkOpjchr-3UGU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38359536 38249419 37719302 36919226 35799196=20 35009238 34819338 35009448 35649552 36709660=20 37599674 38139631=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .