Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 23 2024 18:32:03 ACUS03 KWNS 231831 SWODY3 SPC AC 231831 Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ....Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western O .