Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Apr 22 2024 19:51:58 FOUS30 KWBC 221951 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Mon Apr 22 2024 - 12Z Tue Apr 23 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Roth/Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 23 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 24 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Roth/Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. ....In and near OK... Guidance continues to show an area of convective development across central and eastern OK within a low-level convergence field associated with a stalled boundary over the southern plains north of the Red River. Modest instability located over the region due=20 to active return flow regime will aid in the convective pattern and create an environment capable of low-end flash flooding concerns,=20 especially within any training cells within the confines of the=20 stalled front. All guidance, to some degree has a QPF maximum=20 focused between north-central OK over into the Lower Mississippi=20 Valley which correlates well with recent ML guidance placement, as=20 well as CIPS historical analogs within a similar synoptic=20 evolution. The conundrum becomes a two fold issue of QPF magnitude, as well as agreement within the deterministic on where the best=20 threat will lie. Spread within the latest NBM and GFS/ECMWF=20 ensemble suites remains high with the lower and upper quartile=20 outputs a solid 1-1.5" apart with a slightly higher skewed mean=20 closer to the 75th percentile. This lends credence to potentially a MRGL risk implementation in later forecasts, but there was not=20 enough consensus to warrant an upgrade at this time when factoring in higher FFG indices in place over the areas in question.=20 Considering the setup, this is likely a better case of short term=20 upgrades in the D1/2 periods as CAMs enter the equation and can=20 provide some answers on the convective placement, and QPF footprint when incorporating hi- res ensembles. Have maintained the nil=20 forecast as a result.=20 Kleebauer Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!850WLW9Uz2_RZGX4XPP8LBpxNubZPc9cFVLek9NhY_HZ= jBG45ZDgINRMBd5V_4AGsLgL80gYyDNxxwoRTeCwVF2cxz4$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!850WLW9Uz2_RZGX4XPP8LBpxNubZPc9cFVLek9NhY_HZ= jBG45ZDgINRMBd5V_4AGsLgL80gYyDNxxwoRTeCwxiL6u3Y$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!850WLW9Uz2_RZGX4XPP8LBpxNubZPc9cFVLek9NhY_HZ= jBG45ZDgINRMBd5V_4AGsLgL80gYyDNxxwoRTeCwoW0oC6k$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .