Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 21 2024 16:26:18

ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible
for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and
north Florida.

....North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening...
Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field
and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of
convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front.  Ample heating
over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures
warming into the lower 80s deg F.  12z model guidance so far has a
negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to
observations (3-6 deg F too dry).  This is partially explained by a
richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z
Tallahassee raob.  As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s
deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected
than previously forecast.  Water-vapor imagery shows a lead
disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will
reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening.
Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm
organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D
VAD).  Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb
may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe
setup.  Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe
hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the
early evening.

...Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024

$$

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