Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0478
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 18 2024 07:01:11

ACUS11 KWNS 180701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180700=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-180830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

Valid 180700Z - 180830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and gusty wind threat continues
early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet noted on KTWX VWP will continue to support elevated
supercell potential early this morning across parts of northeast KS
and western MO. The primary supercell of interest at the moment near
Topeka KS is north of a surface warm front over east-central KS.
This thunderstorm should remain elevated in the short term while
progressing eastward towards the Kansas City metro. Given adequate
MUCAPE and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, isolated supercells
across this area should continue to pose a threat for mainly large
hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. But, some chance for strong/gusty
winds around 50-60 mph may also be realized, as the depth of the
near-surface stable layer does not appear prohibitively deep in RAP
forecast soundings.

...Gleason.. 04/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8WH7Oq5QDQYLFHs8PGPe2-FYWNL4p7Ta1H7aFFioK6slNJGKRAwidU7NLehqTyXy_NPocdUcb=
y6_C7Sek3pJjVISJU8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39369636 39679604 39669501 39489438 39109408 38489416
            38459486 38869593 39079638 39369636=20


=3D =3D =3D
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