Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 17 2024 06:00:03 ACUS02 KWNS 170559 SWODY2 SPC AC 170558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER A PORTION OF NORTHERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible Thursday from parts of eastern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley and vicinity. Locally damaging winds and hail are also expected over parts of northern Texas. ....Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will move east from Manitoba into western Ontario, with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. South of the primary midlevel temperature gradient, moderate winds to around 50 kt will extend southward from MO into the OH Valley, with 30 kt midlevel winds into northern TX. Southwest winds of 30-40 kt will exist around 850 mb, aiding theta-e advection into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will exist roughly from northern MO into northwest TX Thursday morning, with a weak low moving from MO into the OH Valley ahead off the front. A warm front will lift northward ahead of the low, allowing moistening to occur over much of southern IL, IN, and northern KY during the day, and spreading into western OH overnight. Ample moisture ahead of this front will result in an elongated area of strong to severe potential throughout the day. ....Mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley... Severe probabilities have been shifted farther west given latest model trends, as strong to severe storms could begin rather early in the day. Ongoing areas of storms are expected on the nose of the low-level jet, possibly in the form of an MCS, roughly over northern MO. As the warm front lifts north ahead of any such system, this could prove favorable for a swath of damaging winds. Otherwise, activity is expected to form near the low and along the cold front, where instability and shear will also favor supercells with large hail and perhaps tornado risk. Given the potential for early storms, this lends uncertainty to the forecast, and precludes an upgrade of higher coverage probabilities as placement would be uncertain. Regardless of early day evolution, moderate westerlies atop the expanding moist sector should favor areas of damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes during the day and through early evening. The severe risk could potentially reach into western OH and northern KY late, depending on upstream evolution. ....Northern TX... A cold front will push quickly south across OK and MO during the day, and across the Red River during the late afternoon and early evening. Given the late frontal arrival, strong destabilization will occur with full heating and upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg is forecast, with steep lapse rates through a deep layer. Although shear will not be strong, hodographs will favor southeastward-moving cells developing near the front or within the narrow low-level lapse rate plume where it will become uncapped. Locally damaging downbursts along with hail will be possible with any storms that develop, warranting an upgrade in severe probabilities for this focused diurnal event. ...Jewell.. 04/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .