Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0466
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 16 2024 23:13:29

ACUS11 KWNS 162313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162312=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of north-central iow and southern
Minnesota.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...118...

Valid 162312Z - 170015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117, 118 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk over tornado Watch 118 may continue for
another 1-2 hours. Some redevelopment along the dryline is possible
with a risk for an isolated tornado and hail.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms over eastern IA have pushed east of the
dryline allowing for clearing over parts of north-central IA and far
southern MN. Some air mass recovery is possible in the next 1-2
hours with strong mid-level ascent overspreading the area. Upper 50s
to low 60s F surface dewpoints are supporting 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE with strong mid and low-level shear profiles in place.
Renewed development has recently taken place near the IA/MN border
suggesting some redevelopment is possible. The main threats would be
an isolated tornado or hail with any storms able to become
established. Confidence is not high given the degree of convective
overturning that has taken place. However, the severe risk may
continue for another hour or two.

...Lyons.. 04/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2OxLmI_TUr5y9mDP3h3kQxQeU0HCTSjjYUYaCrCMxDp0qE72wfK72d6QahrnXnsqkj12-G7v=
nXrkb7LzhB8sySmsYQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43789405 43669258 43399215 43049192 42639186 41959210
            41699236 41539273 41669298 42039315 42469348 43049415
            43389534 43559548 43709531 43789475 43789405=20


=3D =3D =3D
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