Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0456
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 16 2024 11:01:25

ACUS11 KWNS 161101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161100=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...Eastern KS...southeast NE...southwest IA...far
western MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 114...115...

Valid 161100Z - 161300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 114, 115 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will remain possible through
mid-morning within WWs 114-115, with the greatest tornado threat
over east-central KS. Very isolated severe may also spread east of
the watches into parts of southwest IA and far western MO.

DISCUSSION...Over eastern KS, the only well-developed supercell that
earlier produced a tornado in Greenwood County, KS appeared to have
weaken for a period before restrengthening again as other cells
around it diminished. Given the history of this supercell, another
tornadogenesis cycle appears to be underway over east-central KS
given the mid 60s surface dew points and relative lack of
potentially destructive interference amid 0-1 km shear of 40-45 kts.
How long this process can last is uncertain given somewhat less
favorable thermodynamics downstream over the MO River. But should a
long-track supercell persist, it is plausible that a small
additional watch may be needed.

Across NE, the overall severe threat has become more nebulous after
the decay of the severe-producing QLCS over north-central
KS/south-central NE earlier this morning. Remnant deep convection is
still ongoing across parts of eastern NE with renewed development
just southeast of the 990-mb surface cyclone in south-central NE.
Instability within much of this portion of the warm sector appears
to be subsiding, especially with pervasive convection across eastern
KS. Still, isolated severe wind gusts, a brief tornado, and
marginally severe hail will remain possible for a few more hours.

...Grams/Gleason.. 04/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_NmTkWmVUNnKGSygE2zAvR3SDIHRc7pCNsJiosSDAoxDRExHFjBfBzoxYE3LDkSROlUXLEFV1=
GxPjo5CwjyQ7_7w-9c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   41699681 41879545 40739481 39229458 38299448 37819538
            37539639 37819683 38229699 39279699 40949739 41699681=20


=3D =3D =3D
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