Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0447
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 15 2024 23:32:48

ACUS11 KWNS 152332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152332=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of western Texas into far southwest OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

Valid 152332Z - 160100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues. Developing storms across West
TX will remain capable of all hazards this evening. Broad cloud
cover may limit the threat farther east until more robust forcing
arrives from the west.

DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed storms finally developing near the dryline over
west/southwest TX. Likely driven by diurnal mixing west of a broad
cirrus plume, these storms have struggled to maintain intensity over
the last hour due to remaining MLCINH. Continued heating west of the
cloud band may allow for additional development into the early
evening as more intense forcing for ascent from the west. The
environment remains capped, but moderately unstable with 2000-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Strong
deep-layer shear would support supercellular organization with any
storms able to be sustained. Given the moderate buoyancy and shear,
large hail would be likely.=20

Hi-res guidance suggests more robust development is possible closer
to sunset. Low-level flow is also forecast to increase potentially
increasing the tornado risk with any more sustained supercells that
become established. While uncertain on how much storm
development/coverage will occur in the near-term, the environment
remains favorable for severe weather into this evening.

...Lyons.. 04/15/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7PJvNmtIwSCwqvk202HBHsnikqlbMeik7FtU7qE8i85SGMVWghkrywnz13Xgf-fyGMlhYyO3L=
yGfJURC1LeSZZaQj6U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31450127 32240128 32950120 34450037 34679995 34649835
            34479790 33889800 31459964 31090010 31020126 31450127=20


=3D =3D =3D
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