Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 14 2024 08:46:04

ACUS48 KWNS 140845
SWOD48
SPC AC 140844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....D4/Wednesday...
Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into
Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow
before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and
dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe
of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be
more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a
small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the
best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the
stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are
evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward
in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH.

....D5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
A broad mid/upper trough is still advertised to become established
over the Upper Midwest by about D5, with predictability waning in
its evolution into next weekend. This should yield surface high
pressure/ridging being periodically reinforced from at least the
northern High Plains into the central Great Plains. Within the
predominantly westerly mid-level flow regime across the rich
warm-moist sector, an elevated mixed layer should support at least
moderate buoyancy over parts of the TX/OK/AR/LA region. The
quasi-stationary baroclinic zone should eventually be pushed south
towards the northwest Gulf around next weekend. This overall setup
may support daily bouts of low-probability severe.

...Grams.. 04/14/2024

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