Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 11 2024 07:55:46 AWUS01 KWNH 110755 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-111330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0151 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle...Southern GA...Ext. Southern SC... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 110800Z - 111330Z SUMMARY...Continued broad area of heavy rainfall, rain-rates of 2"+/hr and localized streaks of 2-5" totals in 3-4 hrs may result in additional isolated possible flash flooding/rapid inundation conditions through morning downstream of ongoing flooding in Central FL panhandle/SW GA. DISCUSSION...As main surface to upper-low start to vertically stack further NW across the Low Mississippi Valley; a subtle shortwave has rounded the base of the closed low and is starting to lift northeast across the central Gulf generally along/ahead of core of deepening dry slot across S MS, AL at this time. Combined with a diffluent weak dual jet streak centered over S GA is providing highly favorable mid to upper-level ascent pattern.=20 This is manifesting at the surface with sharpening gradients and increasing warm air advection across the eastern Gulf pressing warm moist air further north into central GA with 60-70kts of 850mb flow along/ahead of the dry slot. This narrowed the deep moisture plume with 2-2.2" total PWats at the coastline, expanding to 1.75-2" as far north as central GA. While lapse rates are flattening, the strength of isentropic ascent and flux convergence into ongoing convective clusters will keep rainfall efficiency fairly high with 2"/hr rates likely through daybreak.=20 At the surface, the favorable upper-level pattern has supported a weak surface inflection to develop southwest of Panama City, while upstream high-falls/dry slot has surged the cold front further east providing strong directional convergence for some surface based convection along/near the Big Bend region. Though individual cell motions are increasing with a ENE trajectory, continued convergence upstream will support some backbuilding and slow northward shift in cell motions to allow for repeat/training streaks to develop across the eastern FL panhandle into southern GA. This should allow for some streaks of 2-5" totals to accumulate.=20 While the cells/training environment is moving further into drier/swampier ground conditions, the intensity of the rain from such moisture flux, may still provide a possible localized incident or two of flash (or more likely rapid inundation) flooding through the early morning hours. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9LaNNo35KVoO090rb4-zpMow-R3HG3ts_N5pEvwQC7YzoNFCJ2NdoFlIquB1Ill20Q4W= rM8_MOnZ5_EtW0DyFZ_B0HE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32978123 32388041 31698098 30208234 29568321=20 29748359 29938396 29938415 30128469 31678342=20 32508244=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .