Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 11 2024 02:01:36 AWUS01 KWNH 110201 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-110815- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0150 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama & Southwest Georgia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 110215Z - 110815Z SUMMARY... Widely scattered instances of flash flooding likely to continue as convection capable of rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour continue across portions of the Deep South. Locally considerable flash flooding may develop in the hardest hit areas if heavier convection redevelops late tonight, with new instances of flash flooding possible. DISCUSSION... An MCS slowly tracking along the northeastern Gulf Coast continues to generate a large area of light to moderate rain. Embedded convection is locally producing heavy rain to 1.5 inches per hour over the central Panhandle near Tallahassee and on the back/northwest side of the precipitation shield towards Pensacola and south-central Alabama. Storm total rainfall has broadly averaged between 2 and 5 inches across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Local totals near the southeast corner of Alabama southwest into the north-central Panhandle are over 6 inches for storm total rainfall. This rainfall has already resulted in flash flooding across these areas. Through the early morning hours, expect the line of heaviest rainfall embedded within the middle of the rainfall shield from west of Tallahassee into the southwest corner of Georgia to continue slowly weakening. The heaviest embedded convection will become more cellular, originating from the Gulf, and tracking northeast. The cellular convection will be more likely to train as it moves into the Panhandle from the Gulf. The slow eastward progress of the entire mass of rain will support continued steady rain over much of the MPD area through 0830Z, with the back edge gradually moving southeast across southeast Alabama and the far western Panhandle. There remains considerable uncertainty how much convection will move into the Gulf Coast from the Gulf, as thusfar most of the heaviest convection has remained offshore. Most of the CAMs continue to suggest the convection will move ashore, but the CAMs have done quite poorly depicting that northward move up until now. Convection with marginally higher rainfall rates has successfully moved inland along the back/western edge of the rainfall shield, likely due to added forcing from the advancing upper level shortwave, and should this pattern continue that should diminish the time any one area sees embedded convection capable of producing new flash flooding. Meanwhile, the ongoing steady rain will enable ongoing flooding to continue through the overnight, worsening should heavier convection move over the hardest hit areas. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Rl1ghnkgzhT80TueEBOP-gxtUCDWe09j2wbNIeByVn7Wv1C84Jwzlsn3wdg3TWEMh3Z= CO5ic0bszVRkz5oKIrlCvq4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32278419 31948292 31098293 30288354 29968384=20 29648477 29588519 30328635 30268727 31278671=20 32078515=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .