Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0415
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 10 2024 17:36:26

ACUS11 KWNS 101736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101735=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101735Z - 101900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase from the Florida
Panhandle northward across far southeast Alabama into southwest
Georgia this afternoon. Damaging gusts and tornadoes will be
possible as convection develops/spreads east into these areas.

DISCUSSION...Stronger surface heating is noted across the MCD area
amid diffuse upper clouds and increasing midlevel clouds. While
boundary-layer dewpoints are modest in the low to mid 60s F, some
minor increases in moisture also are possible over the next few
hours. This should result in modest destabilization amid strong
deep-layer shear as the bow echo currently near Mobile Bay continues
to shift east this afternoon. With time, low-level shear is expected
to increase. This will result in more favorable/enlarged low-level
hodographs supporting tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind
potential, both along the apex of the bow and with any cells ahead
of/merging into the bow. A tornado watch will likely be needed
within the hour across portions of the MCD area.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 04/10/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5BwKnw1tOVrZj-L09-dEkbNhS8bA-uI5jGRMKUHujvdOCTGE5QlnZL8hWezK-1ofr6d-rR5lo=
gLr9O6nIBH-P_Fd6Bk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31978622 31948499 31778405 30998397 30168415 29498442
            29458510 29648564 29998643 31978622=20


=3D =3D =3D
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