Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 10 2024 14:42:10 AWUS01 KWNH 101442 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102040- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0146 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1041 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern LA...Central/Southern MS...Southwest AL...Far Western FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 101440Z - 102040Z SUMMARY...Extremely heavy rainfall rates from organized areas of showers and thunderstorms will maintain a significant threat for flash flooding over the next several hours heading into the afternoon. Areas of considerable to high-impact flash flooding are expected along and near the I-10 corridor, including multiple major metropolitan areas from New Orleans to Mobile. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-East IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar continues to show a very impressive cold-topped convective mass associated with strong QLCS activity advancing east across the central Gulf Coast region. The complex remains well-organized out ahead of a deepening area of low pressure near the northwest Gulf Coast, and will continue to advance off to the east over the next several hours while promoting multiple hazards including severe weather and flash flooding. Radar imagery shows a well-defined MCV advancing through southwest MS currently, and the energy/forcing associated with this continues to help channel a strongly convergent and very moist southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50+ kts up out of the northern Gulf of Mexico and into large areas of eastern LA and southern MS. Enhanced moisture and instability transport associated with this is interacting with a west/east oriented stationary front draped east across the region and ahead of the aforementioned deepening low center. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are focused currently along and south of this boundary, with the greatest nose of instability generally aimed into southeast LA including the New Orleans metropolitan area. This coupled with enhanced vertical shear has facilitated the development and expansion of numerous areas of convection across eastern LA and far southern MS over the last 1 to 2 hours including some supercell activity which is all focused out ahead of the main QLCS axis upstream. PWs of 1.5 to 1.75+ inches are in place, and with the degree of instability and shear focusing along the stationary front, enhanced rainfall rates of 2" to 3"/hour will be likely as the more organized convective cells evolve over the next several hours off to the east. The main concern over the next 3 to 6 hours will be the threat for convection becoming aligned in a west-southwest to east-northeast fashion across southeast LA through southern MS and gradually into southern AL inclusive of the I-10 corridor. Enhanced training of very heavy showers and thunderstorms is expected locally, and some major metropolitan areas from New Orleans eastward to Mobile should closely watch out for the threat of extremely heavy rainfall rates and storm totals over the next several hours. Areas farther north across central MS and west-central AL will also become a focus for areas of heavy rainfall, but with instability more limited here, the rates should be a bit lower. An axis of 4 to 8 inches of rain cannot be ruled out across areas of southeast LA through southern MS and into southwest AL by later this afternoon. Lesser amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected farther north and generally north of the aforementioned stationary boundary. Flash flooding is likely across the region, and areas of considerable to high-impact flash flooding are expected locally and especially where the greatest areas of cell-training occurs. This includes a notable threat to the I-10 corridor and the urban corridors along it. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6fm0cMS_79Q-FzhWZ_c0BB5T3smalMjPsShEMnJfbopySjWFlYFwoondvgz-YWOMs537= VsnoroMXKWMhj0UZY_jx0Ks$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32768853 32488756 31748689 30558696 30058888=20 29698952 29439041 29479138 29689197 29959212=20 30959160 31559145 32069104 32608969=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .