Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 10 2024 12:17:17 AWUS01 KWNH 101217 FFGMPD ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101815- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0145 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 815 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...Central to Northeast MS...Far Western to Northwest AL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 101215Z - 101815Z SUMMARY...Broken areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue to advance off to the east this morning, and a combination of heavy rainfall rates and locally sensitive soil conditions may foster some instances of flash flooding through midday. DISCUSSION...A broken band of heavy showers and thunderstorms continues to advance off to the east early this morning across areas of central and northern MS. The activity is somewhat progressive in nature, including a couple of small-scale bowing segments, but the activity continues to foster heavy rainfall rates with some localized areas of repeating cell-activity. The downstream airmass across eastern MS and western AL is only weakly unstable with MUCAPE values of as much as 500 J/kg, but a relatively strong southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is forecast to remain in place which will continue to encourage rather focused moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico. This coupled with a gradual increase in boundary layer instability and the arrival of warm front downstream from strengthening low pressure near the northwest Gulf Coast should favor at least a broken axis of convection across areas of central to northeast MS which will gradually advance into west-central to northwest AL by early afternoon. The southern part of the MPD area which has already locally seen some flash flooding this morning may come under the influence of stronger and more organized convection impacting areas farther south down into LA, and this area will need to be monitored for a more focused and renewed threat of flash flooding. Generally the rainfall rates with the ongoing broken activity will tend to be somewhat mitigated by the relative lack of instability, but some of the stronger convective elements may still produce some 1 to 1.5"/hour rates, with pockets of additional totals through early afternoon of 2 to 3 inches. Given the wet antecedent conditions, these additional rains may foster some instances of flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4MFTwOzyaMxn7lzJkTG2qMTtbFHAfCxrYqIz6DmHNYqpdCl_tiCEbDWBNxGOBGChCzjD= 1AaerojJ3EZb37cbIrlfWVU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34558809 34338757 33598768 32688840 32048939=20 31729048 32279108 33149017 34168914=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .