Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0410
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 10 2024 10:02:25

ACUS11 KWNS 101002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101001=20
MSZ000-101200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101001Z - 101200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and potentially a brief tornado
are possible across central Mississippi over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Convective line stretching from northern MS
southwestward through central LA has shown a bit more forward
propagation over the past hour or so, as this portion of the line
becomes more perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector. The
strongest updrafts within the line now exist over central MS, where
a few bowing segments currently exist. Recent VAD profile from KDGX
sample 220-225 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relatively helicity over the
past half hour, which matches well with a small maximum in 0-1 km
storm-relatively helicity in the same region on the mesoanalysis.
However, low-level stability persists across the region, with recent
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings estimating substantial
convective inhibition remains in place. Even so, a few damaging
gusts may still be able to reach the surface. Additionally, any
sustained mesovortex may be able to produce a brief tornado.
However, the low-level stability is expected to keep the overall
severe potential low, despite the favorable kinematics.

...Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41QgJQatYH4L0QUxZ5Lh2ajSSu1gHHs5IRgm5NDn_ygwU3jFJnMu0tv4sFmVQoePgQC-cu9qr=
7bgmgavWZWJABOu4A0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON   31509122 31869092 32329031 32948998 33468978 33678928
            33478878 32948883 31818928 31488964 31399023 31509122=20


=3D =3D =3D
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