Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0406
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 10 2024 02:50:37

ACUS11 KWNS 100250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100249=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-100345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...southwest Oklahoma into south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 100249Z - 100345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail and severe wind threat will persist for the
next 1 to 2 hours across southwest Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...A consolidated line of storms has developed on the
northwestern periphery of the instability gradient across southwest
Oklahoma. This line has organized into a small bow with several
reports of large hail and measured severe wind gusts. Instability is
weak in the area (~250 J/kg MUCAPE) which casts doubt on the
longevity of the severe weather threat. However, it has been
efficient producing severe weather in a marginal environment.
Therefore, this bowing segment may continue to produce some large
hail and severe wind gusts as it moves east-northeast. Dewpoints in
central Oklahoma are in the upper 40s which may be too dry to
support a severe weather threat. However, dewpoints have increased
to the mid to upper 50s across southern Oklahoma which may allow the
southern extent of this bow to continue east along the instability
gradient into the early overnight hours.

...Bentley.. 04/10/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9gbf3QkYXcRF9LhNFxbk2oZIo0Az-y32nqFvscfNpHdufiUdU05IwDeRfWQaJUCruSvaucpKK=
9jIVoza81jrdUQbglk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   34069874 34329892 34549917 34809916 35179877 35189805
            35129751 34949744 34659757 34439764 34299766 34069874=20


=3D =3D =3D
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