Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0403
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 10 2024 00:32:48

ACUS11 KWNS 100032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100032=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 100032Z - 100200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms have developed across southeast Texas. A
watch is possible if these storms exhibit better organization over
the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms have developed within a 850mb
confluence axis from near Houston and northeastward. A very moist,
unstable environment is present across southeast Texas with
dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s
yielding 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear of 55 to 60 knots
will support supercells as the primary storm mode. Forcing for
ascent is the primary question as some shortwave ridging is building
into the region ahead of the trough digging into northern Texas.
This may restrict a greater threat across the region and keep the
severe threat more isolated. Low-level shear is not that strong with
some veering, but less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 2 km.
Therefore, any stronger supercells which may develop, will have some
tornado threat.

...Bentley.. 04/10/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9pUNSVpLiHFwFTfePhM7PLfbcJlZJhr6CbUCgH4ff9rTYd4qhw7izN8OzVzFwv-fmLkck0Vbs=
YRU2hF_K839s2jkv3w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29979508 31279408 31339263 31169266 30699275 30139292
            29679336 29579418 29409469 29269467 29159492 29979508=20


=3D =3D =3D
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