Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0397
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 09 2024 17:12:46

ACUS11 KWNS 091712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091712=20
TXZ000-091845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

Valid 091712Z - 091845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds
continues. The need for and timing of a downstream watch into east
Texas remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have remain focused along/very near the
convectively reinforced outflow boundary that is draped southwest to
northeast across central TX. Mergers/interactions between various
thunderstorms have led to an overall messy convective mode. Even so,
the environment remains conditionally favorable for severe
convection, including supercells, given adequate instability and
ample deep-layer shear. In the short term, the tornado threat will
continue to be supported by a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level
jet providing generally 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH. But, the
best chance for tornadoes will probably occur with any supercell
that can develop/persist on the southern flank of the ongoing
convection. Similarly, the hail threat will be tied to a supercell
being able to remain at least semi-discrete, which remains
questionable given the ongoing thunderstorm evolution.
Severe/damaging wind potential may increase through the early
afternoon if a cluster can consolidate and spread eastward. The need
for and timing of a downstream watch into east TX remains uncertain,
as widespread cloud cover is slowing airmass recovery along/near the
surface boundary in the wake of earlier convection.

...Gleason.. 04/09/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_cwDceOJ7z7A5ENU4wMJ1Ku9DXV27VFZLXy5otY1pvSdqFNhsUaT8eZmZr7lkTqVxFtuni7T6=
6tNEPBQquZjAKnBnNI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31279834 31919685 32159564 31969524 31389498 30839633
            30489768 30449836 31019839 31279834=20


=3D =3D =3D
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