Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 09 2024 15:27:09 AWUS01 KWNH 091527 FFGMPD TXZ000-092125- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1125 AM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 091525Z - 092125Z SUMMARY...Very heavy showers and thunderstorms including concerns for additional cell-training will continue across areas of central and eastern TX. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally significant flash flooding is possible. DISCUSSION...The GOES-East IR satellite imagery shows an expansive axis of cold-topped convection associated with very heavy showers and thunderstorms focusing across areas of central and eastern TX, with the more robust convective growth over the last hour seen generally along a line from near Burnett through Waco and up into the Corsicana area. Some rainfall rates with this activity are reaching into the 2" to 3"/hour range. The activity continues to locally organize and focus in response to the nose of a moist southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts overrunning a quasi-stationary front generally oriented west/east across the region. A well-defined and substantial pool of instability is noted near and south of the front, which includes MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg across the Hill Country. This moderate to strongly unstable airmass coupled with focused low-level moisture convergence and increasingly divergent flow aloft ahead of a deeper layer trough/closed low ejecting east into the southern High Plains is expected to favor a continuation and localized expansion of convective activity over the next few hours. Many areas across northern and eastern TX have already seen heavy rainfall and flash flooding early this morning, and additional very heavy rainfall totals are expected over the next few hours which may total as much as 4 to 6 inches with isolated heavier amounts not out of the question where any cell-training occurs. The greatest likelihood for this is along the aforementioned corridor from near Burnett through Waco and into Corsicana. Adjacent areas of central and eastern TX near and north of the front are likely to see heavy rainfall as well with somewhat lesser totals at least through mid-afternoon. Upstream convection approaching from the TX Panhandle and northwest TX will also need to be closely monitored as that activity associated with the leading edge of the upper-trough will promote eventually a renewed heavy rainfall/convective threat to the Dallas metropolitan area. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally significant flash flooding will be possible given the very heavy rainfall rates reaching as high as 2" to 3"/hour, enhanced storm totals, and sensitive ground conditions including urban runoff considerations. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8rOGQ_uq7ByGfBbFq-HrMR_jAf5ozqrRMjZAVaDuZhn4ZyfDzFjIdfWpiL-sOJytvQlt= nrFXEDbrgefEar8dFZ5pfI4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33959889 33569750 33259634 33189548 32889422=20 32079412 31529529 30919680 30339788 30279863=20 30809880 31659842 32319860 32889931 33579944=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .