Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0391
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 09 2024 04:49:42

ACUS11 KWNS 090449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090449=20
TXZ000-090615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...Parts of north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 090449Z - 090615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail (golfball to baseball size) remains
possible with an ongoing supercell cluster. A brief tornado cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing at 0445 UTC to the
west-northwest of the Metroplex, with multiple cells having produced
golfball or larger sized hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) within
the last hour. While some cell interactions/mergers have been noted
with the northernmost cells, the two right-moving supercells ongoing
west of Mineral Wells and north of Fort Worth may be able to move
east-northeastward with minimal interference in the short term.=20

MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-55 kt will
continue to support supercell potential into the early overnight
hours, with very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter with
the strongest cells) as the primary threat, along with some risk for
localized severe gusts. Also, low-level flow has substantially
increased over the last 1-2 hours on the KFWS VWP, with 0-1 km SRH
increasing above 150 m2/s2. This could support a brief tornado
threat with the strongest right-moving cells, though relatively cool
near-surface conditions may mitigate this threat to some extent.

...Dean.. 04/09/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2AT7wkPvBsmJ4oChTC2FHHYXHmfba4ZNzk-2Cy-RLaHpv-0GpKTwjYH89AQEV2w6YlrobrT6=
aDSzOWjfZK0YhN8_oI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33359899 33639814 33679694 33399637 33109626 32919638
            32709657 32609701 32549747 32529802 32539848 32579908
            32679931 32979941 33099945 33359899=20


=3D =3D =3D
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